Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2008

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 08 Nov 2008

STATUS REPORT
Date Released: Saturday, November 8, 2008
Source: Space Environment Center (NOAA) - Comments

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained within a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities gradually increased from approximately 440 to 600 km/sec during the period. IMF Bt was enhanced at the start of the period (peak 13 nT), then gradually decreased to a low of 2 nT late in the period. IMF Bz ranged from 08 to -09 nT during the first half of the period, then settled to a range of 04 to -04 nT for the rest of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a slight chance for active levels on day 1 (09 November) as the CH HSS gradually subsides. Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels for the rest of the period (10 - 11 November).

III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed 08 Nov 068
Predicted 09 Nov-11 Nov 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov 007/010-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

Active 10/10/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

Active 15/15/10
Minor storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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