Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 09 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The solar disk was void of spots.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. Activity levels were initially quiet but increased to active levels from 0000-0600Z, then declined to unsettled levels from 0600-1200Z, and were quiet for the remainder of the interval. Solar wind observations at ACE indicate a gradual decline in solar wind velocity (day-end values were around 450 km/s) as the high-speed stream rotates out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (10-12 November).

III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 09 Nov 068
• Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 011/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/05/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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