Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Newly numbered Region 1008 (N33E01) emerged on the disk today and managed to produce today's only event, a B3 x-ray flare at 2031Z. The group is a small (40 millionths), fairly simple D-type sunspot group although there is some weak polarity mixing in the trailer part of the region.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly very low for the next three days (11-13 November). There is a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1008 if it continues to emerge.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was generally quiet during the past 24 hours. ACE solar wind data showed a steady decline of solar wind velocity during the past 24 hours with day-end values around 400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (11-13 November).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 10 Nov 069
• Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 010/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

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