Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 28 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1089 (S24W48) produced a
few B-class x-ray flares as well as a C2 event at 28/2042Z. Newly
numbered Region 1092 (N16E76) remains quiet and stable since
rotating into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a chance for a C-class flare as well as a slight chance for
an M-class flare from Region 1089. A slight chance for a C-class
flare also exists from Region 1092.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with the
exception of an isolated period of minor storming between
28/00-28/03Z. The greater than 2MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
conditions on day 1 (29 July). Mostly quiet to unsettled with a
slight chance for active conditions are forecast for days 2 and 3
(30-31 July).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Jul 083
Predicted 29 Jul-31 Jul 085/087/087
90 Day Mean 28 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jul 011/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jul 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jul-31 Jul 010/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jul-31 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/20
Minor storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/30/30
Minor storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01