Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 29 July 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1092 (N14E63)
produced a pair of B-class flares, the largest a B7 event at
29/1847Z. Region 1089 (S24W62) has been quiet and stable while
decreasing in area.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low, with a slight chance for a C-class flare for the next 3 days
(30 July-1 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet to unsettled with a chance for active
conditions on days 1 and 2 (30-31 July). Conditions are forecast to
return to mostly quiet on day 3 (1 August).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 085
Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 087/087/085
90 Day Mean 29 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/10
Minor storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/20
Minor storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01