:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Aug 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the period
was a C4 at 29/1958Z from a region just around the southeast limb.
Region 1560 (N04E36) a Dao-beta type group was numbered today. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity for the next
three days (30 August - 01 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day 1 (30 August). Days 2 and
3 (31 August - 01 September) are expected to be quiet to unsettled
with a slight chance for active conditions due to effects from a
coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 118
Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 115/120/120
90 Day Mean 29 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 006/005-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug-01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15/20/15
Major-severe storm 05/20/05