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NASA ESAS Final Report November 2005: Section 12.0 Cost

Status Report From: NASA HQ
Posted: Tuesday, December 27, 2005

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Editor's note: DOWNLOAD THIS SECTION (PDF)

Editor's note: several days ago we posted a final (October 2005) draft of this report. We have since come across a complete copy of the final version of the report (November 2005) which has recently been approved by NASA Administrator Michael Griffin. In order to present the most accurate version of this report, we have removed the draft version and replaced it with the final version of the report. NASA is expected to publicly release this report in early January 2006.

12.1 ESAS Cost Analysis Context

Current NASA cost projections for the Exploration Vision are based on the Exploration Systems Architecture Study (ESAS) recommended architecture. The estimates are based on parametric cost models, principally the NASA and Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM). The cost analysis attempted to be conservative. For example, NAFCOM assumes the historical levels of requirements changes, budget shortfalls, schedule slips, and technical problems. If the Vision program maintains stable requirements, is provided timely funding, and incurs fewer technical issues (due to the simplicity and heritage of the approach), cost should be lower than historical norms. Cost credits were not taken for such outcomes, nor do the estimates reflect desired commercial activities that might develop needed cargo and crew services On the other hand, the ESAS was a Phase A concept study. The designs will mature as in-house and contractor studies proceed. Costs will be revisited at Systems Requirement Review (SRR) and Preliminary Design Review (PDR), including non-advocate independent cost estimates. A firm commitment estimate is not possible until PDR.

Finally, critical procurement activity is currently underway and Government cost estimates are being treated as sensitive information. Accordingly, all cost results are provided in the procurement-sensitive appendix, Appendix 12A, Procurement-Sensitive Cost Analysis.


Table of Contents

This large 50 MB PDF report has been subdivided into 17 PDF files - one for each of the report's 17 sections. Click on the link at the top of each section to visit a summary page and to download that section.

Editor's note: several days ago we posted a final (October 2005) draft of this report. We have since come across a complete copy of the final version of the report (November 2005) which has recently been approved by NASA Administrator Michael Griffin. In order to present the most accurate version of this report, we have removed the draft version and replaced it with the final version of the report. NASA is expected to publicly release this report in early January 2006.

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