Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 6 February 2013


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
06/0021Z from Region 1667 (N22E01). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low
levels on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 346 km/s at
06/1848Z. Total IMF reached 6.5 nT at 06/2036Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6.1 nT at 06/2050Z. Electrons greater than 2
MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels for the next three days (07 Feb, 08 Feb,
09 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Feb 104
Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 105/105/105
90 Day Mean 06 Feb 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 006/005-007/008-012/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/25
Minor Storm 01/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/20/35

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