Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 November 2021

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Friday, November 19, 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov, 22 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 531 km/s at 18/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1950Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 19/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 642 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Nov). III. Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Nov 079 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 078/080/080 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 087 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 009/012-013/015-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/20 Minor Storm 10/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 40/50/25

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