Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 April 2022

Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Tuesday, April 19, 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 19/2049Z from Region 2993 (N28, Lo=245). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr, 22 Apr). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 18/2321Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2218 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (21 Apr, 22 Apr). III. Event probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr Class M 75/75/75 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Apr 135 Predicted 20 Apr-22 Apr 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 19 Apr 114 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr-22 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/15 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/20/20

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