Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 29 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 88 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 29/1530Z from Region 2303 (N18W92). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Mar, 31 Mar, 01 Apr).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at 28/2234Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 29/0027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/0913Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 467 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (30 Mar, 31 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Apr).

 

III.  Event probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr

Class M    25/25/25

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           29 Mar 145

Predicted   30 Mar-01 Apr 140/140/150

90 Day Mean        29 Mar 132

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 28 Mar  009/008

Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Mar  016/018

Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Mar-01 Apr  021/025-019/025-013/015

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Mar-01 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                45/45/30

Minor Storm           30/30/05

Major-severe storm    05/05/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/15

Minor Storm           20/20/30

Major-severe storm    70/70/35

 

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.