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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of
particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of
the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space
weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The
increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems
in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems
associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2014
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25
Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 45/45/45
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 227
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 138
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 012/015-009/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/25
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low: Dst > -20 nT
Medium: -20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High: High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme: Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data
Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website.
Space Weather Today from
NOAA's Space Environment Center.