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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 October 2016
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 24/0159Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 24/1341Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1339Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 974 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 075
Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 075/074/073
90 Day Mean 24 Oct 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct NA/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 016/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 028/040-025/040-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/35/30
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low:Dst > -20 nT
Medium:-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High:High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme:Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data