Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Summary For April 8-14 A category R2 (Moderate) radio blackout was observed on 11 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1719. A category R1 (Minor) radio blackout was observed on 12 April due to flare activity from active sunspot Region 1718. A category S1 to S2 (Minor to Moderate) solar radiation storm was observed on 11 - 12 April due to solar activity from active sunspot Region 1719. Outlook For April 15-21 No space weather storms are expected. For current space weather conditions see: Space Weather Now, Today's Space Weather and Space Weather Alerts

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 18 April 2014



Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2014


IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity reached high levels. Region 2036 (S16W41,
Dhc/beta-gamma) produced an M7 flare at 18/1303 UTC, which was the
largest flare of the period. It was accompanied by a Tenflare (1000
sfu), a Castelli-U signature, as well as Type II (851 km/s) and Type IV
radio emissions. An asymmetric halo CME was subsequently observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 18/1325 UTC. Analysis suggested the
ejecta was moving at approximately 1000 km/s and Earth-directed.


IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).


IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at
18/1845Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 18/0207Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -8 nT at 18/0243Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 38 pfu at 18/1955Z.


IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr) and quiet to minor
storm levels on days two and three (20 Apr, 21 Apr) with a chance for
major storm levels on day two (20 Apr). Protons are expected to remain
above the 10 pfu threshold on day one (19 Apr), are expected to cross
threshold on day two (20 Apr) and have a chance of crossing threshold on
day three (21 Apr).


III. Event probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 99/75/50
PCAF yellow


IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Apr 172
Predicted 19 Apr-21 Apr 175/175/175
90 Day Mean 18 Apr 156


V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Apr 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Apr 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Apr-21 Apr 009/012-018/025-017/020


VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Apr-21 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 15/35/25
Major-severe storm 01/10/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 55/75/60

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.