Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 27 November 2014

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to

27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at

27/0047Z from Region 2222 (S20E59). There are currently 8 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with

a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov,

30 Nov).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

431 km/s at 27/1938Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 27/0716Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/1828Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 743 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Nov, 29 Nov, 30

Nov).

 

III.  Event probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

Class M    30/30/30

Class X    05/05/05

Proton     05/05/05

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           27 Nov 179

Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov 180/185/185

90 Day Mean        27 Nov 150

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  004/003

Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  008/008

Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           01/01/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    10/10/10

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.