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Space Weather Guide    What is space weather? Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked. SOHO Real-time View of the Sun   Space Weather Outlook Summary For January 25-31 No space weather storms were observed. Outlook For February 3-9 No space weather storms are expected. For current space weather conditions see: Space Weather Now, Today's Space Weather and Space Weather Alerts   Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 8 Feb 2010 :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2010 Feb 08 2208 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 039 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2010 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1045 (N23W17) produced three M-class events in the last 24 hours. STEREO and SOHO/LASCO imagery observed CME activity with each of the three events. The largest event was a M4 at 08/0743Z with an associated Tenflare of 150 sfu. This region has continued to grow in both white light area coverage and sunspot count and is a magnetic beta-gamma-delta configuration. There were two additional Tenflares observed during the period (both associated with Region 1045 events), a C7/Sf at 08/0415Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare, and a C8/1f at 08/0523Z with a 100 sfu Tenflare. A new region was numbered today as Region 1047 (S15E70). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with M-class flares likely. There is a slight chance for a X-class event from Region 1045. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. One unsettled period at mid-latitudes was reported at 08/1600Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled with isolated active conditions for the next three days (09-11 February). These conditions are forecast due to the recent CME activity. III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb Class M 70/70/70 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Feb 094 Predicted 09 Feb-11 Feb 096/096/094 90 Day Mean 08 Feb 078 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Feb 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb 008/008-008/009-010/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb-11 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/30/35 Minor storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 02/01/05 NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment GOES X-Ray Flux Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES Low: Dst > -20 nT Medium: -20 nT > Dst > -50 nT High: High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT Extreme: Dst < -100 nT SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.

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