Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 May 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2022 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 19/0719Z from Region 3017 (N13E27). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 May, 21 May, 22 May). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 563 km/s at 19/1719Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/1943Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 May, 22 May). III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May Class M 40/35/30 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 May 173 Predicted 20 May-22 May 172/170/170 90 Day Mean 19 May 123 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 010/012-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/20 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/30/25


NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.