Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 22 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to

22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.

The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at

22/1428Z from Region 2192 (S12E06). There are currently 5 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on

days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

607 km/s at 21/2101Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/1510Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/0454Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11815 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Oct), unsettled to active

levels on day two (24 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three

(25 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one

through three (23-25 Oct).

 

III.  Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct

Class M    95/95/95

Class X    55/55/55

Proton     35/40/45

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           22 Oct 216

Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct 215/220/220

90 Day Mean        22 Oct 137

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  011/014

Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  013/016

Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  014/015-012/015-009/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                25/30/20

Minor Storm           10/10/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/35/30

Major-severe storm    40/40/25

 

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.