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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of
particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of
the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space
weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The
increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems
in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems
associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 02/1931Z from Region 2290 (N22W91). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (03 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (04 Mar) and likely to be low on day three (05 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 02/1231Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 02/0347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
Class M 25/10/05
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Mar 130
Predicted 03 Mar-05 Mar 130/130/125
90 Day Mean 02 Mar 143
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar 023/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar 021/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar 015/020-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/45/40
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low: Dst > -20 nT
Medium: -20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High: High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme: Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data
Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website.
Space Weather Today from
NOAA's Space Environment Center.