Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 23 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2014

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to

23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24

hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at

23/0950Z from Region 2192 (S14W06). There are currently 5 numbered

sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate

with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25

Oct, 26 Oct).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar

wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of

503 km/s at 22/2349Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/2100Z. The maximum

southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 23/1717Z. Electrons greater

than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6898 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected

to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (24 Oct) and quiet to

unsettled levels on days two and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct). Protons have a

chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (24-26 Oct).

 

III.  Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

Class M    85/85/85

Class X    45/45/45

Proton     35/40/45

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           23 Oct 227

Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct 230/230/230

90 Day Mean        23 Oct 138

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/011

Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  008/010

Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  012/015-009/010-007/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                30/25/20

Minor Storm           15/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/25

Major-severe storm    45/30/25

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.