Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 24 April 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr, 27 Apr).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 798 km/s at 23/2125Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0615Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/0602Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 54298 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (25 Apr, 26 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (27 Apr).


III.  Event probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green


IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           24 Apr 080

Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr 080/080/082

90 Day Mean        24 Apr 078


V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  024/035

Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr  020/028

Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  015/020-015/020-015/018


VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr-27 Apr

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/40/40

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/10/10

Minor Storm           25/25/25

Major-severe storm    60/60/60

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.