Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 15 September 2014



Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2014


IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/0027Z from Region 2157 (S15W74). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (18 Sep).


IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 509 km/s at
14/2318Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2335Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 15/0808Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Sep).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (16 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day two (17 Sep).


III. Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M 50/40/30
Class X 15/10/05
Proton 15/10/05
PCAF green


IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 133
Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 130/125/125
90 Day Mean 15 Sep 130


V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 006/005-008/012-008/008


VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/15
Minor Storm 01/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 20/50/25

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.