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What is Space Weather?
Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of
particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of
the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space
weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The
increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems
in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems
associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.
SOHO Real-time View of the Sun
Space Weather Outlook
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 1 February 2015
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 32 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 01/1133Z from Region 2268 (S11W57). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb, 04 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 748 km/s at 01/2006Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/1946Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Feb), quiet to active levels on day two (03 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (02 Feb) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (03 Feb, 04 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
Class M 60/55/55
Class X 20/15/15
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Feb 142
Predicted 02 Feb-04 Feb 135/125/125
90 Day Mean 01 Feb 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jan 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Feb 015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Feb-04 Feb 016/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Feb-04 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 25/35/35
Major-severe storm 70/45/30
NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment
GOES X-Ray Flux
Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate
Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES
Low: Dst > -20 nT
Medium: -20 nT > Dst > -50 nT
High: High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT
Extreme: Dst < -100 nT
SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor
ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data
Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website.
Space Weather Today from
NOAA's Space Environment Center.