Space Weather Guide


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What is Space Weather?

Most of the time space, weather is of little concern in our everyday lives. However, when the space environment is disturbed by the variable output of particles and radiation from the Sun, technologies that we depend on in our daily life, in space orbit as well as on the ground, can be affected. Some of the most dramatic space weather effects occur in association with eruptions of material from the solar atmosphere into interplanetary space. Thus, our space weather is a consequence of the behavior of the Sun, the nature of Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere, and our location in the solar system. The increasing deployment of radiation -current- and field sensitive technological systems over the last few decades and the increasing presence of complex systems in space combine to make society more vulnerable to solar-terrestrial disturbances. This has been emphasized by the large number of problems associated with the severe magnetic storms between 1989 and 1991 as the 11 year solar activity cycle peaked.

SOHO Real-time View of the Sun

Space Weather Outlook

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 2 March 2015

 

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Mar 2015

 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 02/1931Z from Region 2290 (N22W91). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

 

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (03 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (04 Mar) and likely to be low on day three (05 Mar).

 

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 02/1231Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 02/0230Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 02/0347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 356 pfu.

 

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (03 Mar, 04 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (05 Mar).

 

III.  Event probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

Class M    25/10/05

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

 

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           02 Mar 130

Predicted   03 Mar-05 Mar 130/130/125

90 Day Mean        02 Mar 143

 

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 01 Mar  023/025

Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Mar  021/030

Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Mar-05 Mar  015/020-012/015-007/010

 

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Mar-05 Mar

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                40/35/30

Minor Storm           15/10/10

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                10/15/15

Minor Storm           30/30/30

Major-severe storm    55/45/40

 

NOAA/SEC Satellite Environment

GOES X-Ray Flux

Dst Geomagnetic Index Estimate

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES

Low:

Dst > -20 nT

Medium:

-20 nT > Dst > -50 nT

High:

High: -50 nT > Dst > -100 nT

Extreme:

Dst < -100 nT

SOHO CELIAS/MTOF Proton Monitor

ACE Solar Wind Real-Time Data



Note: Images and text on this page are provided by NASA/ESA SOHO website. Space Weather Today from NOAA's Space Environment Center.